Special: Oscar Picks 2006
Now, like I have said, I am not really feeling this year's Oscars. It is one of those years where it looks like one movie (Brokeback Mountain) is poised to sweep many of the major categories. But unlike the last time this happened, with Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, I have yet to even see Brokeback, and it's not a movie that I am particularly rooting for, unlike LOTR, where it was a huge statement that a genre movie could be as good as any other and as deserving of critical acclaim.
Also, of the movies I did see this year, many of my favorites are only minimally recognized. A History of Violence got shafted with only a few nominations, and Viggo Mortensen definitely should have been in the best actor race and David Cronenberg in the mix for best director. Munich is nominated but seems to have little chance of winning. Otherwise, I unfortunately have not had the chance to catch up on a few heavily nominated movies like Good Night and Good Luck, Crash, and Capote.
So without any further ado:
Best Picture:
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain - too much buzz, seems inevitable
My Pick: Munich - A powerful, relevant film that is Spielberg's overall best in years - I don't understand why there is so little buzz? And anyone (ie Ann Coulter) who decides to call this movie antisemetic is on crack.
Actor:
Will Win: Philp Seymour Hoffman - also too much buzz, and seemingly well-deserved
My Pick: Terence Howard - Hustle and Flow was an amazing movie, and Howard carried it, through and through. Sure, we've seen the basic story before, but Howard injected his character with multiple dimensions, making his scenes pack a huge emotional punch. Jouaquin was also great in Walk the Line, but his performance was a little bit caricaturish in retrospect.
Actress:
Will Win: Reese Witherspoon - there IS room for an upset here (possibly Felicity Huffman), but otherwie Reese is the biggest name in the highest profile movie, and she did do a great job as Jun Carter in Walk the Line - easily her best movie performance yet, so although I haven't seen any of the other nominated actress' movies, by default and by choice ...
My Pick: Reese Witherspoon
Supporting Actor:
Will Win: Matt Dillon - Crash will get a few bones thrown its way, and I think this will be one of them, although Clooney seems to have some buzz, why I'm not sure since he was decent but not great in Syriana (Where's MICKEY ROURKE for Sin City?), and yet ...
My Pick: William Hurt - although his scenes in A Histoy of Violence were brief, Hurt absolutely lit up the screen and stole the movie. I think people have stood up and taken notice of this kickass performance, so he IS a dark horse to win, though his limited screen time will be a factor
Supporting Actress:
Will Win: Rachel Weisz - Okay, I admit I haven't seen any of the movies with actresses nominated in this caregory, though I have a screener copy of A Constant Gardner I've been meaning to watch. Still, I feel a buzz for Weisz (maybe those rumors of her as Talia Al Ghul in Batman II have something to do with it?) and think she'll win ...
My pick: Rachel Weisz - Since I haven't actually seen these movies, see above
Director:
Will Win: Ang Lee - Look, I am a huge Ang Lee fan - loved Crouching Tiger, loved The Ice Storm ... (I even liked The Hulk!), and his direction is one of the reasons why I was initially interested in seeing Brokeback before it became Jay Leno's favorite punchline. So if he wins, I'm sure it will be deservedly so.
My Pick: Steven Spielberg - I gotta say, in my mind this was the year of Spielberg, with two amazingly directed movies in War of the Worlds and Munich. Munich was, really, a directing clinic as far as I can see. Locations that made you feel like you were there, amazing cuts, huge emotional impact and a tense dramatic pacing. Old school directing, awesome impact ... I say don't ignore the obvious, and pay Spielberg his due respect. But like someone said (Harry Knowles maybe?), this movie is probably too good for the Oscars.
Foreign Film:
- didn't see any of these, but from the buzz I hear my pick is Tsotsi.
Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win: Munich - this is actually a tough category to pick, and I think anyone could win it. Brokeback is just from a short story so it will have a hard time winning. Capote seems like a possible favorite, but Tony Kushner's name-value and respect-factor should hopefully earn him a trophy.
My pick: Munich - Well my sentimental fav is A History of Violence since it's adapted from a graphic novel, but I gotta say that Tony Kushner's script for Munich was ridiculously good. More sophisticated than your average movie and light years ahead of your average thriller, the dialogue, plotting , and characters of Munich were all amazingly written.
Original Screenplay:
Will Win: Crash - remember how I said some bones will be thrown to Crash? Well this is the other one. Paul Haggis is a rising star and I think that even though the movie has gotten somewaht mixed reviews, it's screenplay wil lcome away with an Oscar.
My Pick: Good Night and Good Luck - okay, I realize it's kind of pointless to pick a movie I have not yet seen, but let me put it this way - I've heard nothing but good things about this movie, and I am eager to finally see it. On the other hand, I HAVE seen Match Point and Syriana. Syrian had a meandering and textbook like script, and Match Point was very good, but not quite great. Oh yeah, would really like to check out Squid and the Whale too, but for now I'm goin' with Good Night and Good Luck.
Animated Film:
Will Win: Wallace and Grommet
My Pick: Howl's Moving Castle - Only seen Corpse Bride, which had amazing animation but didn't live up to the greatness of Nightmare Before Christmas. Have yet to see Howl's Moving Castle, though I do like Miyazaki, however this probably is not his year. Why is it my pick? Because let's hear it for TRADITIONAL 2-D ANIMATION, which NEEDS to make a comeback ... now!
Art Direction:
Will Win: Memoirs of a Geisha - Oscar loves period pieces
My Pick: King Kong - some of the best CGI ever used to animate Kong and the creatures of Skull Island
Cinematography:
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain - the year of Brokeback continues
Should Win: Good Night and Good Luck - Well, Batman is nominated, but truth be told I wasn't even crazy about some of the cinematography in that movie (fight scenes cut WAY too jumpily). Gotta go with Clooney and co. for their use of stock news footage integrated into the new stuff. Where's SIN CITY here?!?!
Original Score:
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain - come on, that themsong is everywhere
My Pick: Brokeback Mountain - Aw hell, any song that can make BROKEBACK TO THE FUTURE so funny deserves to win. Oh, and where in the name of Obi-Wan is STAR WARS here? Two words: John Friggin' Williams!
Original Song:
Will Win: Hustle and Flow - It's HARD OUT HERE FOR A PIMP!
My pick: Hustle and Flow - WHOOP THAT TRICK! WHOOP THAT TRICK!
Costume Design:
Will Win: Memoirs of a Geisha - Like I said ...
My Pick: Memoirs of a Geisha - Turning Japanese oh yes I'm turning Japanese I really think so!
Documentary:
Will Win: March of the Penguins: Who doesn't love penguins?
My Pick: March of the Penguins: Yes, even I love those darn penguins. But, um, where the bleep is GRIZZLY MAN?!?!
Makeup:
Will Win: Star Wars Episode III - Come on, we gotta give SOMETHING to Star Wars! And Narnia was good, but the makeup? Well, Mr. Tumnus couldda done a bit better ...
My Pick: Star Wars, baby! Come on, the makeup for THE EMPEROR was awesome!
Visual Effects:
Will Win: King Kong - come on, give something to the GIANT GORILA already! Kong had amazing f/x, and it will be honored for 'em.
My Pick: KONG, duh. Why? One word: Kong vs. T-Rex = crazy delicious.
Alright, there's my picks. Oh, and these are really insider, just so you know. Just kidding, they are grasroots legit, dude. Whatever that means. But come Oscar time you can be assured of one thing - a really boring-ass, five hour show! Yes, even if John Stewart is hosting.
Also, of the movies I did see this year, many of my favorites are only minimally recognized. A History of Violence got shafted with only a few nominations, and Viggo Mortensen definitely should have been in the best actor race and David Cronenberg in the mix for best director. Munich is nominated but seems to have little chance of winning. Otherwise, I unfortunately have not had the chance to catch up on a few heavily nominated movies like Good Night and Good Luck, Crash, and Capote.
So without any further ado:
Best Picture:
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain - too much buzz, seems inevitable
My Pick: Munich - A powerful, relevant film that is Spielberg's overall best in years - I don't understand why there is so little buzz? And anyone (ie Ann Coulter) who decides to call this movie antisemetic is on crack.
Actor:
Will Win: Philp Seymour Hoffman - also too much buzz, and seemingly well-deserved
My Pick: Terence Howard - Hustle and Flow was an amazing movie, and Howard carried it, through and through. Sure, we've seen the basic story before, but Howard injected his character with multiple dimensions, making his scenes pack a huge emotional punch. Jouaquin was also great in Walk the Line, but his performance was a little bit caricaturish in retrospect.
Actress:
Will Win: Reese Witherspoon - there IS room for an upset here (possibly Felicity Huffman), but otherwie Reese is the biggest name in the highest profile movie, and she did do a great job as Jun Carter in Walk the Line - easily her best movie performance yet, so although I haven't seen any of the other nominated actress' movies, by default and by choice ...
My Pick: Reese Witherspoon
Supporting Actor:
Will Win: Matt Dillon - Crash will get a few bones thrown its way, and I think this will be one of them, although Clooney seems to have some buzz, why I'm not sure since he was decent but not great in Syriana (Where's MICKEY ROURKE for Sin City?), and yet ...
My Pick: William Hurt - although his scenes in A Histoy of Violence were brief, Hurt absolutely lit up the screen and stole the movie. I think people have stood up and taken notice of this kickass performance, so he IS a dark horse to win, though his limited screen time will be a factor
Supporting Actress:
Will Win: Rachel Weisz - Okay, I admit I haven't seen any of the movies with actresses nominated in this caregory, though I have a screener copy of A Constant Gardner I've been meaning to watch. Still, I feel a buzz for Weisz (maybe those rumors of her as Talia Al Ghul in Batman II have something to do with it?) and think she'll win ...
My pick: Rachel Weisz - Since I haven't actually seen these movies, see above
Director:
Will Win: Ang Lee - Look, I am a huge Ang Lee fan - loved Crouching Tiger, loved The Ice Storm ... (I even liked The Hulk!), and his direction is one of the reasons why I was initially interested in seeing Brokeback before it became Jay Leno's favorite punchline. So if he wins, I'm sure it will be deservedly so.
My Pick: Steven Spielberg - I gotta say, in my mind this was the year of Spielberg, with two amazingly directed movies in War of the Worlds and Munich. Munich was, really, a directing clinic as far as I can see. Locations that made you feel like you were there, amazing cuts, huge emotional impact and a tense dramatic pacing. Old school directing, awesome impact ... I say don't ignore the obvious, and pay Spielberg his due respect. But like someone said (Harry Knowles maybe?), this movie is probably too good for the Oscars.
Foreign Film:
- didn't see any of these, but from the buzz I hear my pick is Tsotsi.
Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win: Munich - this is actually a tough category to pick, and I think anyone could win it. Brokeback is just from a short story so it will have a hard time winning. Capote seems like a possible favorite, but Tony Kushner's name-value and respect-factor should hopefully earn him a trophy.
My pick: Munich - Well my sentimental fav is A History of Violence since it's adapted from a graphic novel, but I gotta say that Tony Kushner's script for Munich was ridiculously good. More sophisticated than your average movie and light years ahead of your average thriller, the dialogue, plotting , and characters of Munich were all amazingly written.
Original Screenplay:
Will Win: Crash - remember how I said some bones will be thrown to Crash? Well this is the other one. Paul Haggis is a rising star and I think that even though the movie has gotten somewaht mixed reviews, it's screenplay wil lcome away with an Oscar.
My Pick: Good Night and Good Luck - okay, I realize it's kind of pointless to pick a movie I have not yet seen, but let me put it this way - I've heard nothing but good things about this movie, and I am eager to finally see it. On the other hand, I HAVE seen Match Point and Syriana. Syrian had a meandering and textbook like script, and Match Point was very good, but not quite great. Oh yeah, would really like to check out Squid and the Whale too, but for now I'm goin' with Good Night and Good Luck.
Animated Film:
Will Win: Wallace and Grommet
My Pick: Howl's Moving Castle - Only seen Corpse Bride, which had amazing animation but didn't live up to the greatness of Nightmare Before Christmas. Have yet to see Howl's Moving Castle, though I do like Miyazaki, however this probably is not his year. Why is it my pick? Because let's hear it for TRADITIONAL 2-D ANIMATION, which NEEDS to make a comeback ... now!
Art Direction:
Will Win: Memoirs of a Geisha - Oscar loves period pieces
My Pick: King Kong - some of the best CGI ever used to animate Kong and the creatures of Skull Island
Cinematography:
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain - the year of Brokeback continues
Should Win: Good Night and Good Luck - Well, Batman is nominated, but truth be told I wasn't even crazy about some of the cinematography in that movie (fight scenes cut WAY too jumpily). Gotta go with Clooney and co. for their use of stock news footage integrated into the new stuff. Where's SIN CITY here?!?!
Original Score:
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain - come on, that themsong is everywhere
My Pick: Brokeback Mountain - Aw hell, any song that can make BROKEBACK TO THE FUTURE so funny deserves to win. Oh, and where in the name of Obi-Wan is STAR WARS here? Two words: John Friggin' Williams!
Original Song:
Will Win: Hustle and Flow - It's HARD OUT HERE FOR A PIMP!
My pick: Hustle and Flow - WHOOP THAT TRICK! WHOOP THAT TRICK!
Costume Design:
Will Win: Memoirs of a Geisha - Like I said ...
My Pick: Memoirs of a Geisha - Turning Japanese oh yes I'm turning Japanese I really think so!
Documentary:
Will Win: March of the Penguins: Who doesn't love penguins?
My Pick: March of the Penguins: Yes, even I love those darn penguins. But, um, where the bleep is GRIZZLY MAN?!?!
Makeup:
Will Win: Star Wars Episode III - Come on, we gotta give SOMETHING to Star Wars! And Narnia was good, but the makeup? Well, Mr. Tumnus couldda done a bit better ...
My Pick: Star Wars, baby! Come on, the makeup for THE EMPEROR was awesome!
Visual Effects:
Will Win: King Kong - come on, give something to the GIANT GORILA already! Kong had amazing f/x, and it will be honored for 'em.
My Pick: KONG, duh. Why? One word: Kong vs. T-Rex = crazy delicious.
Alright, there's my picks. Oh, and these are really insider, just so you know. Just kidding, they are grasroots legit, dude. Whatever that means. But come Oscar time you can be assured of one thing - a really boring-ass, five hour show! Yes, even if John Stewart is hosting.
posted by Danny B at 11:35 PM
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